The COVID-19 Pandemic and Bank Performance: The Role of Diversification
Main Article Content
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of diversification on the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and bank performance using a sample of 121 banking systems from 2016Q1 to 2021Q2. Using the system generalised method of moments, the findings show the negative impact of COVID-19 on the global banking system. This is consistent with the literature. Furthermore, the findings emphasise that diversification (e.g., lending diversification, income diversification, and geographic lending diversification) may mitigate the adverse effect of COVID-19 on banking performance. Therefore, a diversification strategy should be further considered to overcome future shocks.
Article Details

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2018). The world uncertainty index. [Updated July 2021] Stanford Mimeo.
Alabbad, A., & Schertler, A. (2022). COVID-19 and bank performance in dual-banking countries: An empirical analysis. Journal of Business Economics, 92(9), 1511–1557. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-022-01093-w
Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/03044076(94)01642-D
Bartik, A. W., Bertrand, M., Cullen, Z. B., Glaeser, E. L., Luca, M., & Stanton, C. T. (2020). How are small businesses adjusting to COVID-19? Early evidence from a survey. Working Paper 26989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Massachusetts.
Beck, T., & Keil, J. (2021). Are banks catching Corona? Effects of COVID on lending in the US. CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15869, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.
Ben Ali, M. S. (2022). Digitalization and banking crisis: A nonlinear relationship? Journal of Quantitative Economics, 20(2), 421–435. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-022-00292-0
Berger, A. N. (1995). The profit-structure relationship in banking: Tests of market-power and efficient-structure hypotheses. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(2), 404–431. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2077876
Berger, A. N., & DeYoung, R. (1997). Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 21(6), 849–870. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00003-4
Berger, A. N., & DeYoung, R. (2001). The effects of geographic expansion on bank efficiency. Journal of Financial Services Research, 19(2–3), 163–184. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011159405433
Bond, S. R. (2002). Dynamic panel data models: A guide to micro data methods and practice. Portuguese Economic Journal, 1(2), 141–162. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-002-0009-9
Boot, A. W. (2003). Restructuring in the banking industry with implications for Europe. EIB Papers, 8(1), 109–129.
Boubaker, S., Le, T. D., & Ngo, T. (2022). Managing bank performance under COVID‐19: A novel inverse DEA efficiency approach. International Transactions in Operational Research, 30, 2436–2452. https://doi.org/10.1111/itor.13132
Bourke, P. (1989). Concentration and other determinants of bank profitability in Europe, North America and Australia. Journal of Banking and Finance, 13(1), 65–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(89)90020-4
Carletti, E., Claessens, S., Fatás, A., & Vives, X. (2020). The bank business model in the post-COVID-19 world: The future of banking. Centre for Economic Policy Research Press.
Chiorazzo, V., Milani, C., & Salvini, F. (2008). Income diversification and bank performance: Evidence from Italian banks. Journal of Financial Services Research, 33(3), 181–203. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10693-008-0029-4
Cochrane, J. H. (2020). Coronavirus monetary policy. In R. Baldwin, & B. Weder di Mauro (Eds.), Economics in the time of COVID-19 (pp. 105–108). Centre for Economic Policy Research Press.
Cornelli, G., Frost, J., Gambacorta, L., Rau, P. R., Wardrop, R., & Ziegler, T. (2023). Fintech and big tech credit: Drivers of the growth of digital lending. Journal of Banking and Finance, 148, 106742. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106742
Danisman, G. O. (2022). ESG scores and bank performance during COVID-19. In I. Y. Gok (Ed.), Handbook of research on global aspects of sustainable finance in times of crises (pp. 241–260). IGI Global. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-8501-6
Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Pedraza, A., & Ruiz-Ortega, C. (2021). Banking sector performance during the COVID-19 crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance, 133, 106305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106305
DeYoung, R., & Rice, T. (2004). Noninterest income and financial performance at US commercial banks. Financial Review, 39(1), 101–127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0732-8516.2004.00069.x
DeYoung, R., & Roland, K. P. (2001). Product mix and earnings volatility at commercial banks: Evidence from a degree of total leverage model. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 10(1), 54–84. https://doi.org/10.1006/jfin.2000.0305
Ding, W., Levine, R., Lin, C., & Xie, W. (2021). Corporate immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Financial Economics, 141(2), 802–830. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.03.005
Distinguin, I., Roulet, C., & Tarazi, A. (2013). Bank regulatory capital and liquidity: Evidence from US and European publicly traded banks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(9), 3295–3317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.04.027
Donthu, N., & Gustafsson, A. (2020). Effects of COVID-19 on business and research. Journal of Business Research, 117, 284–289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.06.008
Duan, Y., Ghoul, S. E., Guedhami, O., Li, H., & Li, X. (2021). Bank systemic risk around COVID-19: A cross-country analysis. Journal of Banking and Finance, 133, 106299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106299
Duchin, R., & Sosyura, D. (2014). Safer ratios, riskier portfolios: Banks ׳ response to government aid. Journal of Financial Economics, 113(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.03.005
Elnahass, M., Trinh, V. Q., & Li, T. (2021). Global banking stability in the shadow of COVID-19 outbreak. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 72, 101322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2021.101322
Fang, H., Lu, Y.-C., & Su, C.-W. (2013). Impact of the subprime crisis on commercial banks’ financial performance. Panoeconomicus, 60(5), 593–614. https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN1305593F
Feng, L., Fu, T., & Kutan, A. M. (2019). Can government intervention be both a curse and a blessing? Evidence from China’s finance sector. International Review of Financial Analysis, 61, 71–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.10.010
Forcadell, F. J., Aracil, E., & Úbeda, F. (2020). The impact of corporate sustainability and digitalization on international banks’ performance. Global Policy, 11(S1), 18–27. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12761
Froot, K. A., & Stein, J. C. (1998). Risk management, capital budgeting, and capital structure policy for financial institutions: An integrated approach. Journal of Financial Economics, 47(1), 55–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(97)00037-8
Gallo, J. G., Apilado, V. P., & Kolari, J. W. (1996). Commercial bank mutual fund activities: Implications for bank risk and profitability. Journal of Banking and Finance, 20(10), 1775–1791. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(96)00024-6
García-Herrero, A., Gavilá, S., & Santabárbara, D. (2009). What explains the low profitability of Chinese banks? Journal of Banking and Finance, 33(11), 2080–2092. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.05.005
Goddard, J., Molyneux, P., & Wilson, J. O. (2004). The profitability of European banks: A cross-sectional and dynamic panel analysis. The Manchester School, 72(3), 363–381. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2004.00397.x
Goetz, M. R., Laeven, L., & Levine, R. (2016). Does the geographic expansion of banks reduce risk? Journal of Financial Economics, 120(2), 346–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.020
González, F. (2016). Creditor rights, bank competition, and corporate investment during the global financial crisis. Journal of Corporate Finance, 37, 249–270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.01.001
Gropp, R., Hakenes, H., & Schnabel, I. (2011). Competition, risk-shifting, and public bail-out policies. Review of Financial Studies, 24(6), 2084–2120. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhq114
Ho, T. H., Nguyen, D. T., Luu, T. B., Le, T. D. Q., & Ngo, T. D. (2023). Bank performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: Does income diversification help? Journal of Applied Economics, 26(1), 2222964. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2023.2222964
Ho, T. S. Y., & Saunders, A. (2009). The determinants of bank interest margins: Theory and empirical evidence. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 16(4), 581–600. https://doi.org/10.2307/2330377
Hornuf, L., Klus, M. F., Lohwasser, T. S., & Schwienbacher, A. (2021). How do banks interact with fintech startups? Small Business Economics, 57(3), 1505–1526. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-020-00359-3
IMF. (2019). Financial soundness indicators. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
IMF. (2020). World economic outlook, April 2020: The great lockdown. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(76)90026-X
Katsiampa, P., McGuinness, P. B., Serbera, J.-P., & Zhao, K. (2022). The financial and prudential performance of Chinese banks and Fintech lenders in the era of digitalization. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 58(4), 1451–1503. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-021-01033-9
Köhler, M. (2015). Which banks are more risky? The impact of business models on bank stability. Journal of Financial Stability, 16, 195–212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2014.02.005
Kozak, S., & Wierzbowska, A. (2022). Did the COVID-19 pandemic amplify the positive impact of income diversification on the profitability of European banks? Equilibrium: Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 17(1), 11–29. https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2022.001
Le, T. (2017). The interrelationship between net interest margin and non-interest income: Evidence from Vietnam. International Journal of Managerial Finance, 13(5), 521–540. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMF-06-2017-0110
Le, T. (2018). Bank risk, capitalisation and technical efficiency in the Vietnamese banking system. Australasian Accounting Business and Finance Journal, 12(3), 42–61. https://doi.org/10.14453/aabfj.v12i3.4
Le, T. (2020). Multimarket contacts and bank profitability: Do diversification and bank ownership matter? Cogent Economics and Finance, 8(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1849981
Le, T. (2021a). Can foreign ownership reduce bank risk? Evidence from Vietnam. Review of Economic Analysis, 13(2), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i3.1726
Le, T. (2021b). Geographic expansion, income diversification, and bank stability: Evidence from Vietnam. Cogent Business and Management, 8(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2021.1885149
Le, T. (2022). The roles of financial inclusion and financial markets development in Fintech credit: Evidence from developing countries. International Journal of Blockchains and Cryptocurrencies, 2(4), 339–349. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBC.2021.120374
Le, T. (2023). A shift towards household lending during Fintech era: The role of financial literacy and credit information sharing. Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Administration, 15(3), 466–485. https://doi.org/10.1108/APJBA-07-2021-0325
Le, T., Ho, T. H., Nguyen, D. T., & Ngo, T. (2021). Fintech credit and bank efficiency: International evidence. International Journal of Financial Studies, 9(3), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs9030044
Le, T., Ho, T. H., Nguyen, D. T., & Ngo, T. (2022). A cross-country analysis on diversification, Sukuk investment, and the performance of Islamic banking systems under the COVID-19 pandemic. Heliyon, 8(3), e09106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09106
Le, T., & Ngo, T. (2020). The determinants of bank profitability: A cross-country analysis. Central Bank Review, 20(2), 65–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.04.001
Le, T., Ngo, T., Ho, T. H., & Nguyen, D. T. (2022). ICT as a key determinant of efficiency: A bootstrap-censored quantile regression (BCQR) analysis for Vietnamese banks. International Journal of Financial Studies, 10(2), 44. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs10020044
Le, T., Ngo, T., Nguyen, D. T., & Do, T. T. M. (2024). Fintech and banking: Friends or foes? Evidence from bank–fintech cooperation. International Journal of Bank Marketing (ahead-of-print). https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBM-09-2023-0525
Le, T., & Nguyen, D. T. (2020a). Capital structure and bank profitability in Vietnam: A quantile regression approach. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(8), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13080168
Le, T., & Nguyen, D. T. (2020b). Intellectual capital and bank profitability: New evidence from Vietnam. Cogent Business and Management, 7(1), 1859666. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2020.1859666
Le, T., & Nguyen, D. T. (2021). Bank stability, credit information sharing and a shift toward households’ lending: International evidence. International Journal of Managerial Finance, 18(5), 979–996. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMF-07-2021-0311
Le, T., Nguyen, D. T., & Ngo, T. (2024). Revisiting the quiet-life hypothesis in the banking sector: Do CEOs’ personalities matter? International Journal of Financial Studies, 12(1), 28. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12010028
Le, T., Nguyen, V. T., & Tran, S. H. (2020). Geographic loan diversification and bank risk: A cross-country analysis. Cogent Economics and Finance, 8(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1809120
Le, T., Tran, S. H., & Nguyen, L. T. (2019). The impact of multimarket contacts on bank stability in Vietnam. Pacific Accounting Review, 31(3), 336–357. https://doi.org/10.1108/PAR-04-2018-0033
Le, T. D. Q., Nguyen, D. T., Ho, T. H., & Ngo, T. (2024). Government intervention and stock price returns during COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from an emerging market. Cogent Business and Management, 11(1), 2376042. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2024.2376042
Le, T. T., Nguyen, Q. A., Vu, T. M. N., Do, M. P., & Tran, M. D. (2022). Impact of income diversification on the default risk of Vietnamese commercial banks in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Cogent Business and Management, 9(1), 2119679. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2022.2119679
Lee, C. -C., Yang, S.-J., & Chang, C. -H. (2014). Non-interest income, profitability, and risk in banking industry: A cross-country analysis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 27, 48–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2013.11.002
Lee, C. C., Chen, P. F., & Zeng, J. H. (2020). Bank income diversification, asset correlation and systemic risk. South African Journal of Economics, 88(1), 71–89. https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12235
Li, X., Feng, H., Zhao, S., & Carter, D. A. (2021). The effect of revenue diversification on bank profitability and risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finance Research Letters, 43, 101957. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.101957
Li, X. X., Xie, Y., & Lin, J.-H. (2021). COVID-19 outbreak, government capital injections, and shadow banking efficiency. Applied Economics, 53(4), 495–505. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1808183
Maudos, J. (2017). Income structure, profitability and risk in the European banking sector: The impact of the crisis. Research in International Business and Finance, 39, 85–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.07.034
Mercieca, S., Schaeck, K., & Wolfe, S. (2007). Small European banks: Benefits from diversification? Journal of Banking and Finance, 31(7), 1975–1998. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.01.004
Mirzaei, A., Saad, M., & Emrouznejad, A. (2022). Bank stock performance during the COVID-19 crisis: Does efficiency explain why Islamic banks fared relatively better? Annals of Operations Research, 334, 317–355. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04600-y
Moseson, H., & Akuma, M. (2023). How banks can fix broken fintech partnership models. Ernst & Young Parthenon.
Naeem, M., & Ozuem, W. (2021). The role of social media in internet banking transition during COVID-19 pandemic: Using multiple methods and sources in qualitative research. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 60, 102483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2021.102483
Nguyen, D. T., Le, T., & Tran, S. (2024). Do diverse board structures affect intellectual capital? Transitional economic evidence. Total Quality Management & Business Excellence, 35(3–4), 450–464. https://doi.org/10.1080/14783363.2024.2308690
Nguyen, D. T., Le, T. D. Q., & Tran, S. H. (2023). The moderating role of income diversification on the relationship between intellectual capital and bank performance evidence from Viet Nam. Cogent Business and Management, 10(1), 2182621. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2023.2182621
Nguyen, L. H., Le, T. D. Q., & Ngo, T. (2023). Efficiency and performance of Islamic banks amid COVID-19. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research (ahead-of-print). https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-05-2022-0129
Pervan, M., Pelivan, I., & Arnerić, J. (2015). Profit persistence and determinants of bank profitability in Croatia. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 28(1), 284–298. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2015.1041778
Pfeffer, J., & Salancik, G. R. (2003). The external control of organizations: A resource dependence perspective. Stanford University Press.
Rakshit, B., & Basistha, D. (2020). Can India stay immune enough to combat COVID-19 pandemic? An economic query. Journal of Public Affairs, 20(4), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2157
Roodman, D. (2009). How to do Xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in stata. The Stata Journal, 9(1), 86–136. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0900900106
Saadaoui, A., & Ben Salah, O. (2023). The moderating effect of financial stability on the CSR and bank performance. EuroMed Journal of Business, 18(4), 621–642. https://doi.org/10.1108/EMJB-10-2021-0163
Saona, P. (2016). Intra-and extra-bank determinants of Latin American Banks’ profitability. International Review of Economics and Finance, 45, 197–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.06.004
Schmid, M. M., & Walter, I. (2009). Do financial conglomerates create or destroy economic value? Journal of Financial Intermediation, 18(2), 193–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2008.07.002
Šeho, M., Ibrahim, M. H., & Mirakhor, A. (2021). Does sectoral diversification of loans and financing improve bank returns and risk in dual-banking systems? Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 68, 101619. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101619
Sharma, P., Leung, T. Y., Kingshott, R. P. J., Davcik, N. S., & Cardinali, S. (2020). Managing uncertainty during a global pandemic: An international business perspective. Journal of Business Research, 116, 188–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.05.026
Simoens, M., & Vander Vennet, R. (2022). Does diversification protect European banks’ market valuations in a pandemic? Finance Research Letters, 44, 102093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102093
Stern, G. H., & Feldman, R. J. (2004). Too big to fail: The hazards of bank bailouts. Brookings Institution Press. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7864/j.ctt1gpcc87
Stiroh, K. J. (2004). Diversification in banking: Is noninterest income the answer? Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 36(5), 853–882. https://doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2004.0076
Stiroh, K. J., & Rumble, A. (2006). The dark side of diversification: The case of US financial holding companies. Journal of Banking and Finance, 30(8), 2131–2161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2005.04.030
Taylor, D. (2022). Did diversified and less risky banks perform better amid the pandemic? Economics Letters, 211, 110251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110251
Van Oordt, M. R. (2014). Securitization and the dark side of diversification. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 23(2), 214–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2013.05.001
Vo, X. V. (2020). The role of bank funding diversity: Evidence from Vietnam. International Review of Finance, 20(2), 529–536. https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.12215
Wijethilake, C., & Ekanayake, A. (2020). CEO duality and firm performance: The moderating roles of CEO informal power and board involvements. Social Responsibility Journal, 16(8), 1453–1474. https://doi.org/10.1108/SRJ-12-2018-0321
Williams, B. (2016). The impact of non-interest income on bank risk in Australia. Journal of Banking & Finance, 73, 16–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.07.019
World Bank. (2021). GDP growth (annual %). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
Xiazi, X., & Shabir, M. (2022). Coronavirus pandemic impact on bank performance. Frontiers in Psychology, 13, 1014009. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.1014009
Yan, Y., Jeon, B. N., & Wu, J. (2023). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on bank systemic risk: Some cross-country evidence. China Finance Review International, 13(3), 388–409. https://doi.org/10.1108/CFRI-08-2022-0158
Yuen, M. K., Ngo, T., Le, T. D. Q., & Ho, T. H. (2022). The environment, social and governance (ESG) activities and profitability under COVID-19: Evidence from the global banking sector. Journal of Economics and Development, 24(4), 345–364. https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-08-2022-0136