Scenarios for Future Population Growth in Malaysia

Abstract

Concerns with the new population of Malaysia have so far focussed only on the "logistics" of achieving a 70 million population target by the year 2100. This article examines the demographic implications of future population growth for Malaysia. Various projections based on assumptions of the same future declines in mortality and declines in fertility differing in speed and timing are selected to portray the range of likely future population scenarios. The projections indicate that to have a 70 million population in 115 years time does not require a trajectory that involves overall increasing dependency ratios; so that provided the larger work force can be productively employed, there is no need to fear a fall in per capita income levels. The degree of over-crowding and access to the natural environment in Peninsular Malaysia will, however, deteriorate. The projections also make it clear that small differences in assumptions about trends in the next decade or two can make a big difference to the total population generated over the next 115 years. Even though the target is a long-term one, it does have implications for population policy here and fertility even to remain constant in the short term for the 70 million target to be reached; all that is required is that it does not fall too rapidly. However, the country might not reach a 70 million population without effective pro-natalist policy measures.