Contest Over the Malay Votes in the Marginal State Seats of Perak: A Case Study of N.43 Tualang Sekah

Abstract

This study was conducted by employing the observational, electoral and statistical analyses to examine the ferocious battle over the Malay votes for the 14th General Election (GE14) in the marginal state seat of N.43 Tualang Sekah, Perak. There were three main findings of this study. Firstly, Barisan Nasional/United Malays National Organization (BN/UMNO) relied heavily on the party and governmental machineries and stronger grassroots in its campaign, Pakatan Harapan/Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PH/PKR)’s campaign focused on cybercampaign, walkabouts, and programmes and rallies featuring party heavyweights while Parti Islam Se Malaysia (PAS)’s campaign was less active due to strong reliance on grassroots and limited resources. Secondly, BN/UMNO’s victory in this seat was shaky because over half of the voters voted against it by voting for either PH/PKR or PAS. BN/UMNO’s Malay votes plunged while its Chinese and Indian votes deteriorated. BN/UMNO held on to this seat since it won half of the Malay votes owing to its strong support among female and older Malays. On the other hand, PH/PKR failed to flip this seat since it lost most of the protest votes against BN/ UMNO among Malay voters to PAS. This inevitably complicated PH’s efforts to form the new state administration since it was short of a single seat to rule Perak before the defections of UMNO’s assemblypersons. Thirdly, the issues of the slowing economy and soaring cost of living trounced the racial and religious sentiments since almost two-thirds of Malay voters considered the former in the GE14 as they engaged in economic voting. This benefited BN/UMNO as most of the Malay voters in this seat trusted it to safeguard their economic well-being. However, most of the PAS voters engaged in value voting by prioritising Islamic and Malay issues. The GE14’s results and political trends so far promise great risks and opportunities for all three parties in GE15 which will see the rural Malay-majority seats and the Malay votes remain intensely contested.