The Impact of the New Western Land-Sea Corridor on the Trade Relationship of China and Other Countries Under the Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract

Based on the historical foundation and development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this study uses trade data from the UN Comtrade database to examine the structural characteristics of the Belt and Road trade network from 2013 to 2019. Network analysis and agglomerative subgroup identification are employed to investigate how the development of new trade corridors influences the overall structure of the network. Trade flows for 2013, 2016, and 2019 are visualised using Gephi to examine the trade relationships among countries along the Belt and Road and identify changes in the network structure. The results show that: (1) the overall density of the trade network increased during the study period; (2) the network remained highly unbalanced, with China occupying a dominant core position, while Russia and several ASEAN countries also held relatively important positions; and (3) some countries increasingly moved beyond geographically constrained trade relationships and became more actively integrated into global trade networks. Given the prominent role of Southeast Asian countries, particularly ASEAN members, in the Belt and Road trade network, the study further examines the export characteristics of 13 Chinese provinces involved in the construction of the New Western Land-Sea Corridor to ASEAN. Using foreign trade data from DRCnet, three indicators, namely geographical concentration, product concentration, and export technological complexity, were selected for a multidimensional analysis of provincial exports to ASEAN. Using the K-means clustering method, the 13 provinces were classified into three groups: “single trade-object oriented,” “high-tech oriented,” and “weak response to the New Corridor.” From the perspective of economic cooperation with ASEAN, these findings provide insights into the different export characteristics and development capacities of participating provinces. The study also offers policy recommendations to help provinces strengthen their participation in the New Western Land-Sea Corridor, enhance trade cooperation with ASEAN, and promote the sustainable development of foreign trade.