Trends in Meteorological Drought in Iran Using the SPI Index and Mann-Kendall Test: A Comprehensive Review
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36777/jag2025.4.2.8Keywords:
Meteorological drought, SPI, Mann-Kendall test, Trend analysis, IranAbstract
Drought is one of the most significant climatic hazards in Iran, occurring with varying intensity and frequency due to the country’s wide geographical and climatic diversity. Investigating drought trends can provide valuable insights for sustainable water resource management and for reducing vulnerability in the environmental and agricultural sectors. This review systematically evaluates research on meteorological drought trends in Iran, focusing on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Thirteen relevant articles were analyzed, and SPI data from 1951 to 2019 were reviewed. The review indicates that drought severity in Iran has generally increased over the past decades, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Northern Iran and the Caspian Sea region have not experienced significant changes, whereas the southern, southwestern, southeastern, eastern, and central regions have shown pronounced drought trends. The drought pattern in Iran is heterogeneous: northern regions display a slow trend with more variable and less predictable behavior, while the eastern and southern arid regions exhibit an increasing intensity and duration of drought periods. This study underscores the importance of strategic planning for climate adaptation and the improvement of water resource management.
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